More than 40 people attended the Hot Topics Luncheon hosted by the League of Women Voters of Lehigh County to hear Dr. Christopher Borick present “Election Trends.”

Borick shared how he reviewed polling data and statistics to predict how the electorate will vote in coming elections.

The election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 seemed to signal that Pennsylvanians were voting Republican after years of voting Democratic. Pollsters looked at 2018’s election returns to test that theory. In those elections, Democrats won statewide offices as they did even in 2016. Yet, this trend was less so among candidates for state legislative races. There was still a narrowing of the numbers of Republican-held and Democratic-held offices.

Off-year elections often tell trends. This year, there are two races for Superior Court, one of two mid-level courts, the other being Commonwealth Court. The Superior Court reads legal cases. Democratic candidates traditionally dominate as they did in 2017.

Both parties want to “win back” districts they lost. For example, there will be special elections this year. One is for the 12th congressional district. U.S. Rep. Tom Marino, R-12th, resigned from his seat in Congress Jan. 23, less than two weeks after the start of his fifth term to pursue a job in the private sector.

Can a Democrat win that special election? As an example, Borick mentioned Conor Lamb who, in January, began his term as the U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania’s 17th congressional district in the northwestern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Lamb was first elected to Congress from the neighboring 18th District in March 2018, in a special election against Republican Rick Saccone, who represented the 39th state house district. After the congressional map was redrawn in 2018, he ran for the 18th district.

The start of the new legislative term is when things get done statewide. As this is Governor Tom Wolf’s lame duck term, he can get the most accomplished in these first few months. In his budget message Feb. 5, he included initiatives that met the approval of the Republicans, including state Sen. Pat Browne, R-16th: education funding, training and investment in the trades.

Borick mentioned the governor had looked for an innovative way to accomplish what an extraction tax on hydraulic fracking would have. For example, he will try a separate, non-budget line item for “Capital Projects” such as high-speed Internet that would benefit rural Republicans.

Borick talked about Election 2020 because, since 2016, Pennsylvania has been considered to be a swing state again. In 2016, Trump won by less than one percent of the popular vote in this state. What trends can have that kind of effect in the opposite direction? Predicted population changes in four years are not particularly promising for Republicans. Republican-leaning counties are losing population due to aging and health issues while southeastern Pennsylvania and Lehigh and Northampton counties are experiencing growth. The City of Philadelphia has experienced growth since 2000 after 50 years of decline. Therefore, Trump must expand his base in order to be reelected here.

In addition, Trump has never had good approval ratings. They tend to be 30-40 percent. Since Election 2016, Trump’s base has remained solid but he has lost support of many voters that grudgingly cast votes for him in 2016 (perhaps 5 percent of the overall 2016 electorate).

2016 brought in new voters to the polls. 2018 was the biggest Democratic wave since Watergate. Can Republicans “get back” districts they lost? Prime targets are congresspersons like Susan Wild who will be running for reelection for the first time.

The years after 2020 will be very important. The redistricting of legislative and congressional districts in 2021 will define the Twenty-Twenties as the 2011 redistricting defined the Twenty-Teens. The redistricting system that will be in effect in 2021 will be the same as used in 2011. There are some differences, however. In 2010, Governor Tom Corbett had complete control. In 2021, Pennsylvania’s may be a divided government and Wolf will still be Governor. This will be a better but not optimal situation for Democrats.

Pennsylvania is losing a congressional seat after Census 2020 because it is growing at a slower rate than many other states. And, congressional districts are moving east and southeast. The disappearing seat will be in the west.

The schedule of the Hot Topics Luncheons for 2018-2019 is posted on the LWVLC website.

Kaitlyn Moyer is public relations chair of the League of Women Voters of Lehigh County.