Professor David Lesch, a professor of Middle East history at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas, and author and editor of 12 books on the Syrian conflict, opened his recent talk at Lafayette College with story about an experience he had recently. Upon being questioned by a U.S. State Department official regarding the Syrian Conflict, Lesch noted "The Syria on which I am an expert on no longer exists."

The subject of Lesch's talk focused on what he referred to as a problematic "western-centric view" that most Americans have of the armed conflict. Citing evidence from interviews he has conducted with leaders of both the Syrian Opposition and members of the Al-Assad regime (including Al-Assad himself), Lesch outlined how and why he felt the topic of Syrian Civil War is a "sad story about one man's poor decision and a ... conflict due to a conceptual gap."

With an unexpected comparison between Al-Assad and Michael Corleone of Francis Ford Coppola's film "The Godfather," Lesch outlined what he believes to be the Western World's underestimation of the cultural and historic circumstances which have led to [and will likely keep] Assad in power. While framing Assad's upbringing in the context of this analogy (where both Assad and Corleone rose to take the throne after the death of their brother), Lesch told the audience, "In my view he has lost his way ... power is an aphrodisiac." More importantly, Lesch outlined his own concern that the Assad regime is not likely to fall anytime soon.

According to Lesch, "Assad is the product of an authoritarian system ... designed at best to engage in incremental reform."

Lesch addressed his primary concern with the Assad regime: Assad's own confidence in the regime and their optimistic approach whereby his followers believe they are "saving a secular way of life in Syria." While describing this in the context of what historians have referred to as the "Damascus Winter" (a season of political oppression), Lesch took the opportunity to talk about why he felt this "strong sense of triumphalism" is currently proving to be problematic for the regime.

In November 2007 Lesch was on his way to talk with Assad and was mistakenly held by Syrian law enforcement. After a nearly three-hour interrogation, Lesch convinced the Syrian guards who confiscated his passport to notify Assad of his arrival. Lesch was immediately released. In his talks with Assad later that day, Lesch told the Syrian leader, "Mr. President if you don't get control of these guys [Syrian guards], they're going to come back to haunt you."

Lesch spoke of this particular incident while explaining to the audience that Assad "thought he was beyond condemnation," as represented by that encounter. In other words, Al-Assad's regime may not be able to continue to operate under a stable power structure as a result of growing internal problems.

Lesch outlined what he believes to be the only three possible solutions for what has, as of yet, been an unresolved armed conflict that is reshaping Syrian borders. Foremost, he mentioned the possibility that one side of the conflict could prevail, but he believes this to be highly unlikely.

Secondly, Lesch spoke of proposed negotiations for the conflict but mentioned this be equally unlikely as the Al-Assad regime had no pressing reason to "put themselves out of business," which such peace talks would require.

Lastly, Lesch referred to the most-likely scenario, what he called the "Somalization" of Syria. Lesch described a future Syria run by various truncated governments that would run the country over territorial claims with little central authority.

This possible "Somalization" of Syria, according to Lesch, represents what many fear as a "doomsday scenario" for the United States with respect to the fact that such an outcome could provide a safe-haven for future terrorist activity.

Lesch's appearance was sponsored by the Lafayette Class of 1961 International Speaker Series, The Department of Government and Law Daniel Golden '34 Fund, The International Affairs Program, and The International Student Association of Lafayette College. Lafayette's newly appointed president, Alison Byerly, welcomed the audience and Dr. Ilan Peleg, professor of International Affairs at the college, introduced the speaker.