The government shutdown begun Oct. 1 has been a subject of tremendous debate inside the Beltway and vague effect in the rest of the country. Understanding of just who and what has really suffered is nebulous, with the looming debt default taking center stage as a more visible threat.

Ross Marcus, with the Community Action Committee of the Lehigh Valley, is monitoring the shutdown with an eye toward long-term complications because the immediate impact – locally – has been negligible. When observing the Valley, one might suspect the federal government is pulling one over on us.

"One of the reasons why it isn't obvious where to start is that, to the best of our knowledge, there hasn't been any visible impact in the Lehigh Valley," Marcus explained. "Those communities that have been most directly impacted are those with large federal facilities like military bases or prisons. Even if the employees are essential, many are not getting paid."

For example, this writer spoke with a friend from Newport News, Va. last weekend, who's witnessing this firsthand. Newport News is home to several military bases, suppliers and shipbuilders. She said about one in four locals are currently jobless, spending their days at home living frugally and cutting coupons.

Marcus said here at home the first complications appear to be a lack of scissors to cut through red tape.

"Within CACLV, our Sixth Street Shelter and our Work Ready Program (a welfare-to-work program) both commented that participants in their programs will have a difficult time getting records from federal agencies because of the shutdown," Marcus said. "This will slow their efforts toward self-sufficiency. This could include a homeless family who needs prior-year tax records or a duplicate Social Security card for a job or an employment program."

Marcus described food banks as another likely casualty, saying food orders for the Second Harvest Food Bank for December and January have been placed with the state, which then files them with the federal government. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture is one of the departments that have been heavily hit and there are doubts as to whether there are any federal employees to fill the orders. "This could lead to a problem a couple of months from now, especially since food banks are still distributing record levels of food from the recession. We believe that other organizations are experiencing problems similar to these."

Marcus said he expects further deterioration if the shutdown continues. "The bigger issue is the debt ceiling, since it is our understanding that benefit checks (e.g., Social Security) will stop if the debt ceiling is not increased."